nightlight
Well-known member
President-elect Donald Trump on Nov 30 threatened to impose a 100 per cent tariff on the Brics group of nations if they undercut the US dollar.
“We require a commitment... that they will neither create a new BRICS Currency, nor back any other Currency to replace the mighty US Dollar or, they will face 100 percent Tariffs,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social website, referring to the grouping that includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and others.
My guess is that it will push more countries like Indonesia and Malaysia towards the BRICS grouping.
Let’s assume business as usual continues…
What I am most interested in seeing about a Trump presidency is his economic policies.
In particular, I noted his campaign promise to lower taxes on the people as well as businesses.
Meanwhile, the Republicans have promised to rein in government spending as US debt swells to unsustainable levels.
If you lower taxes, how do you service debt? In his first term, Trump had famously said, "We print the money."
So I'm assuming that more greenbacks will be printed to not only service debt, but also fund construction of the border wall, repair deteriorating infrastructure, and build up the military to confront the China threat, besides other requirements.
So what happens then? This is my reading of what might happen in the short term.
As we have seen before, when the US prints dollars, there is more money chasing after limited goods. This will fuel inflation within the states and the dollar will decline in value.
Meanwhile, due to the US dollar being the international currency of choice, countries will be forced to buy more US dollars to purchase the same goods, as the dollar has weakened.
Paradoxically, this will result in the dollar strengthening, since more countries are chasing dollars.
As the dollar strengthens, the US economy will grow stronger, while every other economy in the world will weaken and struggle to purchase goods internationally.
And when inflation becomes too high in the US, the US Federal Reserve will quantitatively tighten again, hoovering up all the excess dollars and depositing them in its coffers.
It's quite brilliant, actually, as this will lead to the US economy further strengthening.
So what happens in the long term then?
This will also fuel efforts by countries to de-dollarise the global economy, as is being pushed by the Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa bloc, which is touting a currency called the "unit" which is backed by gold.
On the other hand, the dollar is backed by nothing but the US promise to pay the bearer, despite US debt now being well over 100% of GDP.
This debt pile would have caused ratings agencies worldwide to downgrade any other countries credit rating to junk by now. But not the US.
Why not? For one, other companies - particularly in the West - find it useful to maintain a unipolar world order, with the US at the head.
And in other countries, politicians and economists keep their heads buried in the sand or look the other way because it is advantageous to them, possibly in monetary ways as well.
Let's not forget that the US dollar became the global currency of choice after World War II because European governments were devastated and owed huge sums for American weaponry and other support.
Later, when America found it did not have the gold to pay the bearer of a dollar note the value of gold it was supposed to be a store of, the gold standard was dropped and Western countries looked the other way.
Let us not forget that much of the world was not involved in any of the decisions taken to decide on the shape of the global economy post-World War II. It was all decided by some extremely broke and devastated nations and their main creditor.
But as the Biden government found out, cost of living issues can cause any government to topple and trigger unrest. This will happen in other countries as well, as they find it difficult to buy food and fuel.
Solutions are being sought. For example, in 2023, for the first time in history, one-fifth of all international trade in petroleum was carried out in currencies other than the US dollar.
This is the de-dollarisation I was speaking about already taking place. With countries such as China expected to overtake the US economy in terms of sheer size, and their technologies appearing to overtake the US (read about China's AI development versus the US), this process will accelerate.
Should the US dollar lose its position as the global currency of choice, America will no longer be able to print bills to service its debt.
A bit of fun: World War III, with America as the aggressor
What happens then? America cannot let the world de-dollarise. Its economy would collapse, its companies would become worthless, it would not be able to afford the imports it is dependent upon.
Its only choice, therefore, is to go to war with the rest of the world, starting with China.
From there, it would make sense to invade India and South Asia, South-east Asia, the Middle East and other countries to ensure that the dollar remains the de facto "gold" of the modern world. Europe as well?
Can you imagine the death toll? The death count in the billions? The nuclear holocaust and fallout? The hellfire and muties roaming the land?
Like I said, I look forward to learning more about his economic policies haha
“We require a commitment... that they will neither create a new BRICS Currency, nor back any other Currency to replace the mighty US Dollar or, they will face 100 percent Tariffs,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social website, referring to the grouping that includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and others.
My guess is that it will push more countries like Indonesia and Malaysia towards the BRICS grouping.
Let’s assume business as usual continues…
What I am most interested in seeing about a Trump presidency is his economic policies.
In particular, I noted his campaign promise to lower taxes on the people as well as businesses.
Meanwhile, the Republicans have promised to rein in government spending as US debt swells to unsustainable levels.
If you lower taxes, how do you service debt? In his first term, Trump had famously said, "We print the money."
So I'm assuming that more greenbacks will be printed to not only service debt, but also fund construction of the border wall, repair deteriorating infrastructure, and build up the military to confront the China threat, besides other requirements.
So what happens then? This is my reading of what might happen in the short term.
As we have seen before, when the US prints dollars, there is more money chasing after limited goods. This will fuel inflation within the states and the dollar will decline in value.
Meanwhile, due to the US dollar being the international currency of choice, countries will be forced to buy more US dollars to purchase the same goods, as the dollar has weakened.
Paradoxically, this will result in the dollar strengthening, since more countries are chasing dollars.
As the dollar strengthens, the US economy will grow stronger, while every other economy in the world will weaken and struggle to purchase goods internationally.
And when inflation becomes too high in the US, the US Federal Reserve will quantitatively tighten again, hoovering up all the excess dollars and depositing them in its coffers.
It's quite brilliant, actually, as this will lead to the US economy further strengthening.
So what happens in the long term then?
This will also fuel efforts by countries to de-dollarise the global economy, as is being pushed by the Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa bloc, which is touting a currency called the "unit" which is backed by gold.
On the other hand, the dollar is backed by nothing but the US promise to pay the bearer, despite US debt now being well over 100% of GDP.
This debt pile would have caused ratings agencies worldwide to downgrade any other countries credit rating to junk by now. But not the US.
Why not? For one, other companies - particularly in the West - find it useful to maintain a unipolar world order, with the US at the head.
And in other countries, politicians and economists keep their heads buried in the sand or look the other way because it is advantageous to them, possibly in monetary ways as well.
Let's not forget that the US dollar became the global currency of choice after World War II because European governments were devastated and owed huge sums for American weaponry and other support.
Later, when America found it did not have the gold to pay the bearer of a dollar note the value of gold it was supposed to be a store of, the gold standard was dropped and Western countries looked the other way.
Let us not forget that much of the world was not involved in any of the decisions taken to decide on the shape of the global economy post-World War II. It was all decided by some extremely broke and devastated nations and their main creditor.
But as the Biden government found out, cost of living issues can cause any government to topple and trigger unrest. This will happen in other countries as well, as they find it difficult to buy food and fuel.
Solutions are being sought. For example, in 2023, for the first time in history, one-fifth of all international trade in petroleum was carried out in currencies other than the US dollar.
This is the de-dollarisation I was speaking about already taking place. With countries such as China expected to overtake the US economy in terms of sheer size, and their technologies appearing to overtake the US (read about China's AI development versus the US), this process will accelerate.
Should the US dollar lose its position as the global currency of choice, America will no longer be able to print bills to service its debt.
A bit of fun: World War III, with America as the aggressor
What happens then? America cannot let the world de-dollarise. Its economy would collapse, its companies would become worthless, it would not be able to afford the imports it is dependent upon.
Its only choice, therefore, is to go to war with the rest of the world, starting with China.
From there, it would make sense to invade India and South Asia, South-east Asia, the Middle East and other countries to ensure that the dollar remains the de facto "gold" of the modern world. Europe as well?
Can you imagine the death toll? The death count in the billions? The nuclear holocaust and fallout? The hellfire and muties roaming the land?
Like I said, I look forward to learning more about his economic policies haha
