Projection: US slides into "soft fascism "

J

JDs Couch

Well-known member
Authoritarian Consolidation or Proto-Fascist Shift (2025–2035)


Between 2025 and 2027, executive power expands through decrees and loyalty appointments. Opposition media and universities face intimidation and funding cuts. Disinformation dominates public discourse. Courts and government agencies become politicized, and dissenting judges or civil servants are removed. Several states pass increasingly restrictive laws that limit protest, voting, reproductive, and gender rights.


From 2028 to 2030, elections continue to occur but are no longer genuinely competitive. Voter suppression, gerrymandering, and manipulation of vote counts make results effectively predetermined. Political violence increases around election periods, and armed militias act as unofficial enforcers for one side. Federal agencies begin investigating or prosecuting political opponents. Mainstream parties fracture, with one becoming completely loyal to a single charismatic leader. Civil liberties erode quickly, and many journalists and organizations self-censor out of fear.


By 2031 to 2035, open dissent becomes risky or punishable. Judicial independence effectively ends as courts are stacked with loyalists. Federal and state governments coordinate propaganda and messaging to maintain control. Citizenship rights become conditional on loyalty or identity. Foreign policy turns isolationist and militaristic, with the government framing external and internal enemies as threats to national survival.


The likely outcome is that the United States becomes a competitive authoritarian regime, or in the worst case, a soft fascist state. Elections technically exist but have no meaning. Opposition parties are symbolic. Violence and loyalty replace the rule of law as the foundation of political power.
 
I wonder what will happen to New Zealand?
Here’s a careful, evidence-based projection for **New Zealand** from 2025–2035, using a similar framework to what we did for the U.S. I’ll focus on democratic trends, institutions, and potential risks.

---

## Context

New Zealand is generally considered a **stable liberal democracy**, often ranking in the top 10 globally for democratic quality, transparency, press freedom, and rule of law (Freedom House, Economist Democracy Index). Its proportional representation system and relatively high trust in institutions provide strong safeguards.

However, like all democracies, it faces risks from:

* Polarization on issues like climate, Māori rights, immigration, and housing.
* Disinformation campaigns and social media influence.
* Populist political movements gaining traction.

---

## Scenario 1: Democratic Stability / Recovery (Most Likely)

**2025–2027**

* Parliamentary elections remain free, fair, and competitive.
* Public institutions continue functioning independently (courts, central bank, Ombudsman).
* Civic engagement, including Māori representation and environmental activism, remains robust.

**2028–2030**

* Governance reforms address housing, climate, and social inequality, reducing populist resentment.
* Strong oversight mechanisms ensure transparency in government spending and legislation.
* Media remains independent and investigative.

**2031–2035**

* Democracy consolidates further; institutions adapt to technological and environmental changes.
* New Zealand remains a model of high-trust democracy in the Asia-Pacific region.

**Outcome:** Stable, resilient democracy with minor policy conflicts but no threat of authoritarian drift.

---

Scenario 2: Moderate Authoritarian / Populist Drift (Low Probability)

**2025–2027**

* A populist government or coalition emphasizes nationalism or “anti-elite” rhetoric.
* Attempts to influence independent agencies or judicial decisions increase slightly.
* Social media spreads disinformation, reducing consensus on key policy issues.

**2028–2030**

* Political polarization deepens, but elections remain competitive.
* Minor restrictions on protest or media may appear, especially around contentious legislation.
* Trust in institutions falls moderately, particularly among marginalized communities.

**2031–2035**

* Democracy survives, but with weakened norms and higher political tension.
* Civic engagement drops slightly; political discourse becomes more adversarial.
* New Zealand resembles countries like Hungary or Poland in “illiberal democracy” traits, but without full authoritarian control.

**Outcome:** Competitive democracy persists but norms erode slightly; vigilance is needed.

---

Scenario 3: External Shock / Crisis-Induced Drift (Very Low Probability)

* Natural disasters, severe economic crisis, or major geopolitical events could test New Zealand’s democratic institutions.
* Emergency powers might be used disproportionately, leading to temporary restrictions on civil liberties.
* If such shocks coincide with populist leadership, democratic erosion could accelerate.
* Still, strong institutions and legal culture make long-term authoritarian consolidation unlikely.

**Outcome:** Temporary strain on democracy; full authoritarian or fascist shift highly improbable.



**Overall assessment:**
New Zealand is unlikely to move toward fascism or authoritarianism in the next decade. The most likely path is continued stable democracy, with the occasional populist challenge that may test norms but is unlikely to fundamentally weaken the system.

---
 
Here’s a careful, evidence-based projection for **New Zealand** from 2025–2035, using a similar framework to what we did for the U.S. I’ll focus on democratic trends, institutions, and potential risks.

---

## Context

New Zealand is generally considered a **stable liberal democracy**, often ranking in the top 10 globally for democratic quality, transparency, press freedom, and rule of law (Freedom House, Economist Democracy Index). Its proportional representation system and relatively high trust in institutions provide strong safeguards.

However, like all democracies, it faces risks from:

* Polarization on issues like climate, Māori rights, immigration, and housing.
* Disinformation campaigns and social media influence.
* Populist political movements gaining traction.

---

## Scenario 1: Democratic Stability / Recovery (Most Likely)

**2025–2027**

* Parliamentary elections remain free, fair, and competitive.
* Public institutions continue functioning independently (courts, central bank, Ombudsman).
* Civic engagement, including Māori representation and environmental activism, remains robust.

**2028–2030**

* Governance reforms address housing, climate, and social inequality, reducing populist resentment.
* Strong oversight mechanisms ensure transparency in government spending and legislation.
* Media remains independent and investigative.

**2031–2035**

* Democracy consolidates further; institutions adapt to technological and environmental changes.
* New Zealand remains a model of high-trust democracy in the Asia-Pacific region.

**Outcome:** Stable, resilient democracy with minor policy conflicts but no threat of authoritarian drift.

---

Scenario 2: Moderate Authoritarian / Populist Drift (Low Probability)

**2025–2027**

* A populist government or coalition emphasizes nationalism or “anti-elite” rhetoric.
* Attempts to influence independent agencies or judicial decisions increase slightly.
* Social media spreads disinformation, reducing consensus on key policy issues.

**2028–2030**

* Political polarization deepens, but elections remain competitive.
* Minor restrictions on protest or media may appear, especially around contentious legislation.
* Trust in institutions falls moderately, particularly among marginalized communities.

**2031–2035**

* Democracy survives, but with weakened norms and higher political tension.
* Civic engagement drops slightly; political discourse becomes more adversarial.
* New Zealand resembles countries like Hungary or Poland in “illiberal democracy” traits, but without full authoritarian control.

**Outcome:** Competitive democracy persists but norms erode slightly; vigilance is needed.

---

Scenario 3: External Shock / Crisis-Induced Drift (Very Low Probability)

* Natural disasters, severe economic crisis, or major geopolitical events could test New Zealand’s democratic institutions.
* Emergency powers might be used disproportionately, leading to temporary restrictions on civil liberties.
* If such shocks coincide with populist leadership, democratic erosion could accelerate.
* Still, strong institutions and legal culture make long-term authoritarian consolidation unlikely.

**Outcome:** Temporary strain on democracy; full authoritarian or fascist shift highly improbable.



**Overall assessment:**
New Zealand is unlikely to move toward fascism or authoritarianism in the next decade. The most likely path is continued stable democracy, with the occasional populist challenge that may test norms but is unlikely to fundamentally weaken the system.

---
I wonder who wrote the above as it certainly was no conservative who did.

Biased and slanted...for sure.

NEVER trust a Leftist...morally inferior and mentally unstable.
 
If the Dems were in you'd be correct.

Are you sure about that? Say hello to Putin's poodle. ;)

images
 
Blue States provide 71% of the GDP, and Red States only 29%, WHY should the Blue States be run by Red State values, dictated by the Heritage Foundation (Project 2025)?

Create Blue States of America with a return to democracy, human rights, equality, inclusion and healthcare for all. It's time.
 
Blue States provide 71% of the GDP, and Red States only 29%, WHY should the Blue States be run by Red State values, dictated by the Heritage Foundation (Project 2025)?

Create Blue States of America with a return to democracy, human rights, equality, inclusion and healthcare for all. It's time.
Which blue state do you live in?
 
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