Is the economy really as bad as they're saying?

MadAsAHatter

MadAsAHatter

Well-known member
This question is stemming from a conversation I was having with the wife this morning. We were talking about they should bring home ec back in schools, but expand it past teaching girls how to bake. Change it to Household Management and teach budgeting, basic home repair, and life management in general.

Part of that was saying people don't know how to manage their finances, budget, and live within their means. That lead to the economy and people not being able to afford things. I asked the rhetorical question is the economy really that bad? Or is it that people are not tracking their finances, trying to fund a lifestyle outside their means on credit, racking up unnecessary consumer debt then bitching they never have any money blaming it on the economy instead of their poor decisions.

You turn on the news and it's nothing but Trump's economy is crippling the nation. No one can afford basic necessities because the economy is so bad. The cost of everything keeps going up. Then you watch some man on the street type videos asking about people's finances. You see stuff like I have $90,000 in consumer debt plus student loans. Oh I didn't realize I was paying $300/month for subscriptions I didn't know I had. We couldn't afford eggs but just came back from a $10,000 destination vacation we put all on the credit card. Basically everything saying the average person doesn't track their finances and spends outside their means.

In my personal life I've seen prices on select items go up; like beef and gas, but overall I'm not seeing/feeling any effects of a bad economy. We also track our finances, have zero debt, budget for the future/savings, and overall live within our means. The needs are met, the savings goals are hit, and we can generally afford the wants with no issues or struggles. I haven't had to adjust our monthly budget since back when Biden was in office and there was the runaway inflation. In most months we have more money left over than planned/expected. Oh, and as an added personal stat, my retirement and investment accounts have been doing really well this year.

With all of that and an attempt to answer that rhetorical question I had AI pull the stats. I'm definitely seeing a disconnect between what people are saying about the economy and what it's actually doing. The numbers say the economy isn't perfect, but overall it's better than it was prior, trending in the right direction, and generally floating in or doing better than historical averages. My conclusion is the economy is growing a little slower than normal, but pretty decent right now. It's people's poor financial habits and life decisions that are the problem. Instead of taking responsibility, they blame it on a bad economy.

Here's the stats I pulled.
Of the categories shown, GDP and Consumer Spending are the ones you want to see stable/go up and the rest trend down to indicate a healthy economy. Housing price is nuanced and influenced by other factors. So that category can be a bit over the map due to that.

What are y'alls thoughs on the matter?

Economic IndicatorCurrent StatsLast YearYear 2022Projected EOY 2026Projected EOY 2028Historical Average
GDP Growth1.5%2.2%2.5%1.8%2.1%3.1%
CPI Inflation3.4%2.7%8.0%3.0%2.5%3.2%
Unemployment Rate4.3%4.1%3.6%4.2%4.0%5.7%
Consumer Spending Growth4.4%3.8%7.5%4.1%3.5%3.0%
Interest Rates (Fed Funds)3.6%4.5%4.3%3.25%3.0%4.6%
Housing Price Growth1.3%2.0%7.5%1.5%3.0%4.0%
 
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I can’t speak to numbers or economic indicators but I can tell you two things. My investments are doing well, but every single consumer product or service is dramatically more expensive than it was or should be and I don’t think it’s ever going down again. It fucking pisses me off more than it probably should because I’m not struggling, but fucking $8/lb for regular ground beef makes me want to kill some mother fuckers.
 
I guess in the aspect of shit went up during the Biden runaway inflation and never came down consumer products are more expensive than they should be. Over the last few years prices seem to have stabilized for the most part; at least things I buy with my spending habits. And I never expected prices to go down from the Biden era, only stabilize where they were. So that probably skews my view a little bit.

When everything was skyrocketing in price I definitely felt it and it wasn't fun. I was even making a bit less money at the time. I also think I weathered that storm better than others because I didn't have a mountain of debt like the average American. I already had buffers built in to my finances so I just had to readjust instead of scramble on how to pay the bills. That's where my thoughts on the problem being with people having poor financial habits instead of it being a current bad economy stems from. Average Americans were already treading water because of their bad habits & debt so a huge economic setback like that put them underwater where they still haven't recovered. It's easier to say it's something else's fault than admit your own mistakes type thing.
 
I knew when the covid price increases hit, there would be no turning back for the most part. I have actually seen some prices at grocery stores drop and some manufacturers I deal with at work have done the same on a few things, but I also see things I believe to be nothing but political price gouging. The housing market is my biggest concern. If it doesn't correct itself soon, many will be looking at government owned housing as the only option. Which IMO is by design.
 
You gotta look at what the average American makes and what’s left after expenses. Credit card use is all time high, because people are broke. Nobody needs to be putting toilet paper and milk and bread on credit at 29%.
Then you have to ask the question of why are people broke? Is it because of the wages? Or is it because of how they have and are managing their wages?

How many people put themselves in huge unnecessary debt with a useless college degree that produced little ROI or an extravagant vacation they couldn't afford in the first place. If half your paycheck is going to debt that could have been avoided with sound financial planning, of course you're going to struggle. I'm not saying that's fully the case, but there are a number of signs that point to it for the average American.

Edit: Just checking the stat quickly, The amount of consumer debt (not including mortgages) is between $20,000 - $30,000 for the average American [depending on the age range]. It's hard to imagine people racked up that much buying milk & TP.
 
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I knew when the covid price increases hit, there would be no turning back for the most part. I have actually seen some prices at grocery stores drop and some manufacturers I deal with at work have done the same on a few things, but I also see things I believe to be nothing but political price gouging. The housing market is my biggest concern. If it doesn't correct itself soon, many will be looking at government owned housing as the only option. Which IMO is by design.
Agreed on the housing market. That's been a big thing that doesn't seem to have stabilized. If you're not already in a home you're kinda screwed. I blame a good chunk of that on immigration.
 
well the market is doing great. im very happy
gas prices are holding back any other progress and is hurting everything else and adding to inflation and breaking wallets
im not happy about that
 
Then you have to ask the question of why are people broke? Is it because of the wages? Or is it because of how they have and are managing their wages?

How many people put themselves in huge unnecessary debt with a useless college degree that produced little ROI or an extravagant vacation they couldn't afford in the first place. If half your paycheck is going to debt that could have been avoided with sound financial planning, of course you're going to struggle. I'm not saying that's fully the case, but there are a number of signs that point to it for the average American.

Edit: Just checking the stat quickly, The amount of consumer debt (not including mortgages) is between $20,000 - $30,000 for the average American [depending on the age range]. It's hard to imagine people racked up that much buying milk & TP.

And gas, and electric, and phone bill, and food, and fuel, and lunch, and Netflix and chill, and vape, and Takis, and eyelashes and coffin nails…. Yadda etc.

And wages still suck. I saw a study where an hours work gets you 2 potato’s and a loaf of bread.
 
Not something I watch. I'm assuming they're saying it's the best economy in all of human history. Fox can be just as bad as CNN; just in the opposite direction.

From what I remember CNN doesn't really discuss facts, they just say everything sucks. At least Fox Business post stats similar to what you are showing and they are not afraid to call out President Trump or talk about areas that need improvement. Plus I like Charles Payne and rolling financial numbers they show constantly. Those are not biased, they are just market performance. :dunno:

But yeah, prices for everyday things are up. So is my portfolio.
 
Absolutely. Brain rot for the right. They ALL have an agenda
It's why I give little merit to anything on the news. Too much agenda and narrative pushing from both sides. The truth usually lies somewhere in between.
That's why I think the economy is doing decent. Not perfect, not doom and gloom, but doing well enough to manage and gain a little ground if you've been making sound financial decisions.
 
From what I remember CNN doesn't really discuss facts, they just say everything sucks. At least Fox Business post stats similar to what you are showing and they are not afraid to call out President Trump or talk about areas that need improvement. Plus I like Charles Payne and rolling financial numbers they show constantly. Those are not biased, they are just market performance. :dunno:

But yeah, prices for everyday things are up. So is my portfolio.
Do you really think when shit starts to really take a dive (and it’s gonna) is your “portfolio” gonna be worth shit? When every bank starts collapsing. The stock market is rigged beyond repair. If you are small guy and not at the top or near the top of the pecking order, you probably will never see a dime.
Friends I fear we are right on the cusp of a society -as we know it- altering event. It’s mathematical impossibility for this to continue. I’m not a religious man nor claim any affiliation but I recall a proverb, that says “when there is no vision, the people go unrestrained.”
What is the vision for the future as we sit literally on the brink of nuclear engagement?

This shit cannot continue.
 
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Lots of victim blaming going on here.

"Hey if you're struggling, just get a better job". "Hey if you're struggling you just didn't manage your money right like I did cuz I'm a money stud LOOK AT ME!!!!".

Lol.
 
Do you really think when shit starts to really take a dive (and it’s gonna) is your “portfolio” are gonna be worth shit? When every bank starts collapsing. The stock market is rigged beyond repair. If you are small guy and not at the top or near the top of the pecking order, you probably will never see a dime.
Friends I fear we are right on the cusp of a society -as we know it- event. It’s mathematical impossibility for this to continue. I’m not a religious man nor claim any affiliation but I recall a proverb, that says “when there is no vision, the people go unrestrained.”
What is the vision for the future as we sit literally on the brink of nuclear engagement?

This shit cannot continue.

I don't buy into that line of thinking but you could very well be correct. It actually wouldn't take much - especially now with A.I. and potential red flags etc. But if that happens, it is going to happen to everyone except a few top elite as you said. But its not like I have all of my duckets in gold or bitcoin or 2 stocks or my mommy's piggy bank. I'm way behind compared to true 'preppers' but if I have to give everything up and move to the country to survive - I'm prepared to do that.
 
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Lots of victim blaming going on here.

"Hey if you're struggling, just get a better job". "Hey if you're struggling you just didn't manage your money right like I did cuz I'm a money stud LOOK AT ME!!!!".

Lol.
Don't be a turd. There's actually a decent discussion going on for a change.

Anyway, to seriously address your absurdity. My point is having a bunch of your income going to debt already puts you behind regardless of the economy. The $56,000 question is how did one accumulate the debt in the first place? Most common reasons are living above your means, no emergency savings, and lack of financial literacy. So even if the economy is doing good, in those situations you're probably still going to struggle regardless. So you also have to ask the question are these people taking responsibility for their actions or going to blame something else and call it a day. Or to put it in terms of the OP, is the economy really doing that badly or are people just saying it's bad to compensate for their shortcomings in financial literacy?
 

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