Housing market

[BABMusic]

"Help with mortgage" search results are now the highest they've been since 2009. This housing market has been tricky to figure out, as many thought it should have already crashed by now. We know there's just not enough real jobs with good enough income to afford the prices on homes over the last few years. People who do own homes have a 3% or less rate, and they cannot move because they couldn't afford a new home -- so a large percentage of people are stuck. However, while home prices are the highest they've ever been priced in dollars, there are some other things to consider.

- Gold has increased in value over 100% since 2023, thus home prices in gold, are down 50% since 2023.
- Some markets are not likely to go down, just to do very little land and inventory available (Boston)
- Many markets have gone down already in 2024-25, but they haven't "crashed".
-The Fed will do everything in its power to try to keep home prices HIGH, because the government benefits from this. But will they lose control?

Perhaps the biggest sign that things are changing:

-rents are falling in many cities. Rents usually go up every year, so this may be the sign that the tide is turning.

What you think? Where is the housing market headed?

 

[SI]

What you think? Where is the housing market headed?

 

[The~Kid]

"Help with mortgage" search results are now the highest they've been since 2009. This housing market has been tricky to figure out, as many thought it should have already crashed by now. We know there's just not enough real jobs with good enough income to afford the prices on homes over the last few years. People who do own homes have a 3% or less rate, and they cannot move because they couldn't afford a new home -- so a large percentage of people are stuck. However, while home prices are the highest they've ever been priced in dollars, there are some other things to consider.

- Gold has increased in value over 100% since 2023, thus home prices in gold, are down 50% since 2023.
- Some markets are not likely to go down, just to do very little land and inventory available (Boston)
- Many markets have gone down already in 2024-25, but they haven't "crashed".
-The Fed will do everything in its power to try to keep home prices HIGH, because the government benefits from this. But will they lose control?

Perhaps the biggest sign that things are changing:

-rents are falling in many cities. Rents usually go up every year, so this may be the sign that the tide is turning.

What you think? Where is the housing market headed?

You realize it's not 2008 and Obama is not President.....


It's 2025 buddy and yeah we get you been in a coma for almost 20 years but President Trump is Making America Great Again ^_^

 

[japetus]

Probably a 25% value crash in the next 24 months

 

[BABMusic]

You realize it's not 2008 and Obama is not President.....


It's 2025 buddy and yeah we get you been in a coma for almost 20 years but President Trump is Making America Great Again ^_^

Right, but housing is very overvalued, and that's a simple fact. If people cannot afford to keep their homes, we know what happened. There are forces trying to keep prices high, but my question is more about if you really think they can succeed? I am doubtful they can keep control of it for too much longer.

 

[BABMusic]

Probably a 25% value crash in the next 24 months

That would be pretty big news if that happens. We shall see.

 

[harddriver]

The housing market is and has been a bubble kept going since the 2008 crisis so the elites and banksters got bailed out with TAXPAYER funds so their asset values continued to rise into recession/depression. Same bullshit they pulled in 1929 and every other manipulated boom bust cycle since 1913.

The system should have been allowed to collapse and rebuild in 2007-2008 but the banksters forced the US taxpayers and European savings account holders to bail out the European system.

What you have is a system set up and run by the 1% for the 1%, all gains are privatized and risk is socialized, it's always a win/win for the 1%.

30 million illegals were brought in by the US government to fill rentals and bolster the failing un-afforable housing market for entry levels buyers meanwhile Blackrock and private capital is buying up entry level housing to make into rentals.

Do you remember when Klaus Schwab said " You will own nothing and be Happy" Larry Fink is trying ot make that happen.

 

[The~Kid]

Right, but housing is very overvalued, and that's a simple fact. If people cannot afford to keep their homes, we know what happened. There are forces trying to keep prices high, but my question is more about if you really think they can succeed? I am doubtful they can keep control of it for too much longer.

Well interest rates are going to go down soon so I figure that will reset the market so to speak. If it's still tough to sell a home at lower interest rates then I figure prices will come down more and in either case the Fed is looking to make more than a few cuts too along the way to make it easier to buy a home too

 

[BABMusic]

Well interest rates are going to go down soon so I figure that will reset the market so to speak. If it's still tough to sell a home at lower interest rates then I figure prices will come down more and in either case the Fed is looking to make more than few cuts too along the way to make it easier to buy a home too

I'm not saying I know what's going to happen -- that's why I started this thread. It's tricky to figure out what the future looks like. Rates are maybe going down, but haven't moved yet as far as I know (I heard they went up slightly last week). If they do cut rates a lot, that might push prices higher as people would be able to qualify for more money to borrow.

 

[SI]

What happens when the largest home mortgage holders are for profit again?

 

[The~Kid]

I'm not saying I know what's going to happen -- that's why I started this thread. It's tricky to figure out what the future looks like. Rates are maybe going down, but haven't moved yet as far as I know (I heard they went up slightly last week). If they do cut rates a lot, that might push prices higher as people would be able to qualify for more money to borrow.

Right on but it would make homes easier to buy and given that inflation has been relatively stable under President Trump and better than in the Biden Administration rates look to be going down sooner than later.


At the same time you still do have overvalued homes and people aren't dumb, even with easier money they aren't going to buy overvalued homes so easily so the market would adjust and be more competitive in any regard relative to before interest rate cuts as to suck up the money.


This is also good for current home owners because they may be able to refinance their house, cars and other things.


Cuts also means as said that inflation is under control thanks to President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent...... You also have the Big Beautiful Bill around the corner that is bound to pump the economy full of juice especially combined with the rate cuts and low inflation.

 

[VonBonfire]

Right, but housing is very overvalued, and that's a simple fact. If people cannot afford to keep their homes, we know what happened. There are forces trying to keep prices high, but my question is more about if you really think they can succeed? I am doubtful they can keep control of it for too much longer.

How is it overvalued? I mean, I do agree on principle, but look at the cost of materials and labor for building a new home. I'm in a position where I don't have a mortgage, and have considered moving. But I have to sell for absolute top dollar in order to get the equivalent or more in a less desirable location and have any money left over. It's kind of paralyzed me in terms of where/when/how.

They can crash the market for all I care and I'm still in the same basic position. They are making rents cheap because I presume they want to collapse the economy, and have mortgage defaults, putting everyone who isn't in the strongest possible position into a perpetual state of renting....

 

[BABMusic]

How is it overvalued? I mean, I do agree on principle, but look at the cost of materials and labor for building a new home. I'm in a position where I don't have a mortgage, and have considered moving. But I have to sell for absolute top dollar in order to get the equivalent or more in a less desirable location and have any money left over. It's kind of paralyzed me in terms of where/when/how.

They can crash the market for all I care and I'm still in the same basic position. They are making rents cheap because I presume they want to collapse the economy, and have mortgage defaults, putting everyone who isn't in the strongest possible position into a perpetual state of renting....

If you compare the prices in real terms to homes priced in the 1980s or 1990s, they are considerably higher. Not just in nominal terms. However, I mentioned gold because you could argue that priced in gold, they have already crashed.

You're absolutely right that it costs more to build homes than what they can sell for (for starter homes). So you are correct that the cost to build a home, is just a reflection of materials, labor, etc. However, wages have not kept up with inflation (as they intended), so buying and keeping a home has become only for those with a certain level of higher income.

 

[VonBonfire]

If you compare the prices in real terms to homes priced in the 1980s or 1990s, they are considerably higher. Not just in nominal terms. However, I mentioned gold because you could argue that priced in gold, they have already crashed.

You're absolutely right that it costs more to build homes than what they can sell for (for starter homes). So you are correct that the cost to build a home, is just a reflection of materials, labor, etc. However, wages have not kept up with inflation (as they intended), so buying and keeping a home has become only for those with a certain level of higher income.

The gold/silver measure doesn't work for me really because metals are manipulated in value. I do believe everything is overvalued. I have sunk much less than 100k into this property, not including my labor, and considering what I actually paid for it, I'm looking at getting 4-5x my investment in a sale in ten years time.

 

[Floyd Eye]

Mine are paid off.

 

[Laputan Machine]

The government gave management of public pension funds (trillions of dollars) to groups like Blackrock, they then use all this cash to buy up real estate in order to prop up/create a fake GDP.
People were saying China was doing the same thing with their 'ghost cities' (people buying fake/uninhabited apartments/houses) but now all those ghost cities have been filled up so the demand was real and China wasn't faking it. If you go back 10 years and watch those "China is collapsing" vids they said this was going to be the cause.

 

[Wizard of Ozz]

Home prices will only go up. As they have over the last 40 years.

Land to build on is harder to come by... unless you can live in West-BF-Wyoming and don't need to work, need to have electricity or public sewage.

Rents in my AOR are up... way up... and have been increasing steadily over the past 15 years.

Cost of building materials and labor is up... and will only go up. Not down... never down.

More people are poor and uneducated than ever before... and need to rely on the gub-ment to sustain them. Look at the test scores of 2025 high school "graduates"... especially in math and science. Go to school (university or trade) get educated, learn a skill and work hard. Not hard really.

 

[The~Kid]

Home prices will only go up. As they have over the last 40 years.

Land to build on is harder to come by... unless you can live in West-BF-Wyoming and don't need to work, need to have electricity or public sewage.

Rents in my AOR are up... way up... and have been increasing steadily over the past 15 years.

Cost of building materials and labor is up... and will only go up. Not down... never down.

More people are poor and uneducated than ever before... and need to rely on the gub-ment to sustain them. Look at the test scores of 2025 high school "graduates"... especially in math and science. Go to school (university or trade) get educated, learn a skill and work hard. Not hard really.

Pricea will go up..... Historically this is a given.....



But relative to the up and up and the trend of the economy they will become more affordable especially as President Trump is Making America Great/Safe Again ^_^

 

[rsm]

Housing prices often fluctuate; if you're not buying or selling, it really doesn't matter.

If you have a low mortgage rate, makes sense to stay where you are and wait for prices to rise, and interest rates to come down. If you don't have a mortgage, just wait for the market to rise before selling.

Our home prices are down around 10% from the high, but there are more houses for sale than usual, supply is higher than demand. One of the places I track for a possible future move is up nearly 6%....

 

[dcburn]

Just last Saturday, wife and I drove by our neighbors and saw the sign in their front lawn, listed their house.

When they purchased a few years back (2020?) they paid $239,000 and I couldn't believe it!
Could not believe the house would bring so much.
I used to sell my chicken eggs to the woman who had owned it previously, I was in the house a bit.

Been inside since the new owners had purchased as my youngest is friends with their two kids.
They've done nothing to it.

They listed at $465,000.
And I bet they get it.

Seriously has me thinking...