Tubes to Become Obsolete?

[rupe]

I was invovled in an interesting discussion last week on Ritchie Fliegler's facebook page. He essentially said that tubes will become obsolete in the near future...not because digital/ss gear is better, but because they will no longer be feasible to manufacture. A direct quote:

Good conversation. There are many issues with modern tubes, but, as far as demand driving production. Today's stuff is economically feasible, in part, due to the fact that the machinery they are made on was paid off 50 years ago. That machinery and the people who run/ran it are fading very fast. To rebuild the infrastructure for the next 50 years is not economically feasible at current costs. So, 12ax7s at the price of 300Bs? Sure. But nobody's gonna pay that. There is more to this to be sure, but this is a central and important issue.

I guess it's time to start hoarding glass again.
I sold off a ton of my NOS stuff when I realized (with a few exceptions) that it really didn't sound better in the amps that I like and the prices were becoming exorbitant.

Thoughts?

 

[dooredge]

I don't know who Ritchie Fliegler is, but that seems a bit of a ridiculous statement.

Marshall, Mesa, Bogner, Fryette, Fortin, Randall, Engl, Diezel, Peters, Blackstar, Orange, Vox... and on and on are going to quit building tube amps? That's essentially what Ritchie's saying isn't he?

If not tubes, what then? Frectal and Kemper will own the amp market?

 

[Bob Savage]

Hate to say it but vacuum tubes are already obsolete for the most part. Most devices that used them in the past have long since gone solid state.

 

[marvcus]

I can totally see tubes being phased out in the next decade or so. They are not a necessity to anyone except
for a niche market of audiophiles and guitar players.

Agree w/ Fliegler.

 

[rupe]

I don't know who Ritchie Fliegler is, but that seems a bit of a ridiculous statement.

Marshall, Mesa, Bogner, Fryette, Fortin, Randall, Engl, Diezel, Peters, Blackstar, Orange, Vox... and on and on are going to quit building tube amps? That's essentially what Ritchie's saying isn't he?

If not tubes, what then? Frectal and Kemper will own the amp market?

What choice do they have if they can't get tubes? This is an issue of economics and has nothing to do with amp builders.

As for Ritchie, he was the VP of Marketing at Fender and Marshall both...a well respected figure in the world of amps.

 

[Aztec]

Seeing how popular units like the Axe FX and Kemper have become and the rapid evolution of those kinds of units....let's wait and see how many tube amp users there still will be in about 10 years or so.

 

[Chris6870]

I see it being like the Mad Max movie but instead of fighting for gasoline we will be fighting for vacuum tubes.

 

[Rogue]

Hard to say. The same things were claimed decades ago, but they are still here. It does seem instinctual to say they will eventually phase out, though.

There will come a time when processing power and algorithm complexity will adequately mimic tube function. As will other component functions of an amp.

 

[rocknrolla]

That's silly. How many tube amps were sold in 2012? The demand for that market alone would warrant as many tube manufactures that are active right now.
If there's a demand, the supply will follow.

 

[marvcus]

But at what price? This is all conjecture (duh) but who is going to pay, say, $400 for a set of 5 12Ax7s? $600 for a quad of EL34s?
And it's not like the quality is there across the board, either. Will that get better or worse as time goes on?

 

[dooredge]

What choice do they have if they can't get tubes? This is an issue of economics and has nothing to do with amp builders.

As for Ritchie, he was the VP of Marketing at Fender and Marshall both...a well respected figure in the world of amps.

I'll believe it when I see it.

One choice that comes to my mind (and I'm stupid amp companies form a collective to continue the manufacture of tubes. Of course that would be a massive and detailed undertaking, but not unrealistic if they want to see their product lines continue. Simplistic overview: money is pooled from said companies into a fund to update infrastructure and quality. Where the tubes are manufactured, quality standards etc. etc. are determined by a representative of each company that buys into the pool. Maybe the cost of tubes go up initially, but over time initial investments are recovered and tube prices return to a somewhat "normal" price range.

Feel free to tell me I'm stupid. I hear it every day.

 

[jerrydyer]

nope..BS
some other co will just fill the void. (if one comes up)

 

[marvcus]

Actually, check out this article.

http://news.sciencemag.org/sciencenow/2 ... -tube.html

The gist of it is that (enter Dumble cackling here...) they are experimenting with a "modified" or updated version of the vaccum tube
for computers. Electrons move slower in solids than in tubes, which means computing COULD be much faster with a tube than w/ solid state materials.

If something like this catches on, I'd put my money on vacuum tubes as we know them falling by the wayside and amps being modded/manufactured to accept this new type of tube technology.

 

[2tallmusic]

Not knowing too much details of todays tube market, but in the last decade I have seen a growing high-end and and a growing DIY market for guitar amps. When I started to squirrel away some NOS stuff, there were less current production brands and options available then today.

Approaching a guitar store 10 -15 years ago - there was either Sovtek or GT or RUBY but not really an option to choose available. If I compare this with the situation today with lots of specialized online stores, guitar stores having lots of (reborn) brands in stock I personally would not assume that these are signs of a dying market.

 

[Anonymous]

I just think we'll see more stuff like this in the future:

Too many tube amps out there to not find a solution if vacuum tubes go away...

Steve

 

[rupe]

I guess it all depends on the cost of new infrastructure when the old stuff finally ceases to work. I tend to trust a guy's opinion who dealt with these issues as a part of his profession...I hope he's wrong but it makes sense. These machines were built when tubes were in everything...I think its reasonable for him to state that the limited market of amp and audio manufacturers wouldn't be enough to justify the cost as I'm sure he's actually looked into it.
Think of it like the Concorde...it was too cost prohibitive to produce replacements in the 21st century so when they were done, that mode of travel ceased to exist even though the demand was there. Want a super-sonic flight these days? Join the Air Force.

And Steve, what the hell are those?

 

[Ventura]

Looking at things from the simplest perspective, it's coming down to "economies of scale" and "fiscal benefit".

So, here we go, there'll be a handful of excellent tube manufacturers; they'll have to do what they do which is produce excellent glass for discerning buyers. Someone in that mix will do better at marketing than the others, and manage to cop out on quality, and lower the price a touch, and this will then put the pressure on the other manufacturers to cut some corners in order to maintain price competitiveness in the market place. Failing that, they'll be warriors and maintain their stance as top-notch bottle makers, and service an increasingly select niche market - and their bottom line will start to whither. They'll be bought up by the growing company mentioned above (the guys who spend more on marketing than QC).

This has been played out thousands of times, and this market is nothing different.

That said, some wisecracker is going to make the "solid state" tube real vogue like. New and betterer. It might catch on with the usual praise of "consistency, availability, price" being touted as superior to the "turbulent" glass tube industry.

I suppose in short, anything goes - but ultimately it comes down to the mighty dollar. And if the mighty dollar dictates where tubes go, just follow the money.

 

[Anonymous]

And Steve, what the hell are those?

Check it out:

Solid-state equivalent of 6L6 and 12AX7 tubes from AMT Electronics

Steve

 

[Ventura]

I just think we'll see more stuff like this in the future:

Too many tube amps out there to not find a solution if vacuum tubes go away...

Steve

First thing that went through my mind when I read the title to this thread.

 

[JackTripper]

What choice do they have if they can't get tubes? This is an issue of economics and has nothing to do with amp builders.

As for Ritchie, he was the VP of Marketing at Fender and Marshall both...a well respected figure in the world of amps.

I'll believe it when I see it.

One choice that comes to my mind (and I'm stupid amp companies form a collective to continue the manufacture of tubes. Of course that would be a massive and detailed undertaking, but not unrealistic if they want to see their product lines continue. Simplistic overview: money is pooled from said companies into a fund to update infrastructure and quality. Where the tubes are manufactured, quality standards etc. etc. are determined by a representative of each company that buys into the pool. Maybe the cost of tubes go up initially, but over time initial investments are recovered and tube prices return to a somewhat "normal" price range.

Feel free to tell me I'm stupid. I hear it every day.

I agree. Vertical integration. If Apple can buy its chip maker, then why can't Fender or Marshall buy a tube manufacturer? They could be had for cheap if these companies are in fact anachronistic, and it ensures future supply.