jlbaxe
Banned
Active member
yeah no kiddingshane159":2uqzw4bs said:
rupe
Active member
Not many Economics and/or Finance majors in this thread are there? Tube amp users and Audiophiles are a near insignificant market segment...a few fanatics won't drive investors to build manufacturing facilities.
glip22
Well-known member
Tubes are still a 2.4 Billion dollar industry in the US alone. They are used in many other areas aside from the two listed.
Vacuum tubes have one instrumentation niche in which they are clearly superior: extremely high-impedance measurements. There are semiconductors with very high impedance inputs, JFET and MOSFET transistors, or integrated circuits based on them. However, the semiconductors are not tolerant of high voltage. I own a Keithley 610B electrometer (a hyper-sensitive meter capable of measuring current in the nanoamp range or measuring voltages from sources incapable of producing sufficient current to achieve a reading on most voltmeters). I prefer the 610B to the all-solid-state 610C. The B model is mostly solid-state, but has a nuvistor, a miniature vacuum tube, as the input stage. The FET-input 610C model can be blown by a tiny static charge on the instrument input, but the 610B simply shrugs off such an insult. In this case, a vacuum tube is far more reliable than a transistor!
Another scientific application for vacuum tubes is the ionization gage, a device for measuring high to ultra-high vacuum. This device is basically a plain old diode. The first instinct, upon seeing one of these happily glowing on a vacuum system, is to expect that the filament is going to cause trouble. There is, in fact, an alternative device, the cold cathode gage. Technically the cold cathode gage is still a vacuum tube, an "inverse magnetron," although it uses a small radioactive disk to produce the few electrons needed to get it running, and has no hot cathode. In practice, I've had one old ionization gage, bought used, run trouble-free for years, even tolerating a few boo-boos that caused the vacuum to fail. It has migrated to several experiments, and outlived its original solid-state controller. And, on that same apparatus, a cold cathode gage has needed teardowns for maintenance several times over the same period. The cold cathode gage also stops working at very low pressures, where the rate of ionization is too low to keep it running reliably. The ionization gage's steady flow of electrons keeps it running to far lower pressures.
Vacuum tubes are not yet dead in the radio transmission business, either, especially as you get into microwave power applications. The physics of generating microwaves, especially at extreme frequencies, does not always lend itself to transistors. I already mentioned magnetron tubes, and they continue to have applications other than kitchen appliances. Traveling Wave Tubes (TWTs) and Klystrons are also still in use.
Although silicon controlled rectifiers, thyristors, and Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistors (IGBT's) have replaced tubes in most switching applications, the old thyratron tubes continue to have a niche.
X-ray tubes are essentially high-voltage diodes with anodes made of metals selected for their x-ray emissions. Unless someone comes up with an X-ray version of an LED, this is another niche where the vacuum tube is secure.
The most sensitive light-measurement system known is the Photo-Multiplier Tube, or PMT. These use a photocathode to convert photons to electrons, with very high quantum efficiency. A photon in the visible light range will reliably produce a few electrons with a known probability. Each electron is accelerated toward an intermediate electrode called a "dynode", where it strikes, producing a number of secondaries (the more voltage between dynodes, the more electrons). The dynode string, or "electron multiplier", may have as many as 11 stages. PMT's can be set to such high sensitivity that they can literally count individual photons! Solid state CCD technology is marvelously sensitive, but not yet that good. Used without the photocathode, a bare electron multiplier can be used as a hyper-sensitive electron or ion detector. PMT's and electron multipliers are blazingly fast-responding devices. CCDs work by periodic scanning to determine the amount of discharge they have experienced due to photon impact, and this "integration time" must be fairly long at low light levels.
Vacuum tubes have one instrumentation niche in which they are clearly superior: extremely high-impedance measurements. There are semiconductors with very high impedance inputs, JFET and MOSFET transistors, or integrated circuits based on them. However, the semiconductors are not tolerant of high voltage. I own a Keithley 610B electrometer (a hyper-sensitive meter capable of measuring current in the nanoamp range or measuring voltages from sources incapable of producing sufficient current to achieve a reading on most voltmeters). I prefer the 610B to the all-solid-state 610C. The B model is mostly solid-state, but has a nuvistor, a miniature vacuum tube, as the input stage. The FET-input 610C model can be blown by a tiny static charge on the instrument input, but the 610B simply shrugs off such an insult. In this case, a vacuum tube is far more reliable than a transistor!
Another scientific application for vacuum tubes is the ionization gage, a device for measuring high to ultra-high vacuum. This device is basically a plain old diode. The first instinct, upon seeing one of these happily glowing on a vacuum system, is to expect that the filament is going to cause trouble. There is, in fact, an alternative device, the cold cathode gage. Technically the cold cathode gage is still a vacuum tube, an "inverse magnetron," although it uses a small radioactive disk to produce the few electrons needed to get it running, and has no hot cathode. In practice, I've had one old ionization gage, bought used, run trouble-free for years, even tolerating a few boo-boos that caused the vacuum to fail. It has migrated to several experiments, and outlived its original solid-state controller. And, on that same apparatus, a cold cathode gage has needed teardowns for maintenance several times over the same period. The cold cathode gage also stops working at very low pressures, where the rate of ionization is too low to keep it running reliably. The ionization gage's steady flow of electrons keeps it running to far lower pressures.
Vacuum tubes are not yet dead in the radio transmission business, either, especially as you get into microwave power applications. The physics of generating microwaves, especially at extreme frequencies, does not always lend itself to transistors. I already mentioned magnetron tubes, and they continue to have applications other than kitchen appliances. Traveling Wave Tubes (TWTs) and Klystrons are also still in use.
Although silicon controlled rectifiers, thyristors, and Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistors (IGBT's) have replaced tubes in most switching applications, the old thyratron tubes continue to have a niche.
X-ray tubes are essentially high-voltage diodes with anodes made of metals selected for their x-ray emissions. Unless someone comes up with an X-ray version of an LED, this is another niche where the vacuum tube is secure.
The most sensitive light-measurement system known is the Photo-Multiplier Tube, or PMT. These use a photocathode to convert photons to electrons, with very high quantum efficiency. A photon in the visible light range will reliably produce a few electrons with a known probability. Each electron is accelerated toward an intermediate electrode called a "dynode", where it strikes, producing a number of secondaries (the more voltage between dynodes, the more electrons). The dynode string, or "electron multiplier", may have as many as 11 stages. PMT's can be set to such high sensitivity that they can literally count individual photons! Solid state CCD technology is marvelously sensitive, but not yet that good. Used without the photocathode, a bare electron multiplier can be used as a hyper-sensitive electron or ion detector. PMT's and electron multipliers are blazingly fast-responding devices. CCDs work by periodic scanning to determine the amount of discharge they have experienced due to photon impact, and this "integration time" must be fairly long at low light levels.
jlbaxe
Banned
Active member
Well I guess its time to invest in Line6 and Fractal Audio
Cliff should make a (ADI) ADSP-TS203S TigerSHARC® processor — 500 MHz Tube
Cliff should make a (ADI) ADSP-TS203S TigerSHARC® processor — 500 MHz Tube
snowdog
Active member
rupe":2iqrkg6s said:
To quote the prophet Bob-Time Will Tell.
I do agree it may not be monetarily feasable to continue the way they are making them now or build a new factory to build them the same way. Countless things have been re-engineered to be done differently for numerous reasons-cost effectiveness,safety etc. There must be more than one way to build a tube.
If tube manufacturing does go the way of the Dinosaur, we can look back on this on this Historic Rig-Talk thread and duly note that you and Bob and whoever else agreed with Fliegler were right.
J
JackTripper
Well-known member
Fender already manufacturers in China. China already manufacturers tubes. China doesn't care about safety or environmental concerns. Labor costs make ROI very attractive, as thousands of US companies have proven. I'm not saying this is ideal, but FMIC is not likely going to walk away from 60+ years of tube amp production.
jlbaxe
Banned
Active member
JackTripper":13ufwg55 said:
Bob Savage
Well-known member
glip22":3575x2so said:
Naughty boy... Quote your sources.
http://www.angelfire.com/va2/TomLigon/tubes.htm
rupe
Active member
I see what you're saying...but don't you think the VP at Fender quoted in the OP probably already investigated that? I have no idea what the future holds, but the only one that's been a part of the discussion (albeit via quote) with any credibility seems to think its not feasible to rebuild.JackTripper":3k6yvj3a said:
Bob Savage
Well-known member
snowdog":cr0axd6s said:
I actually have no strong opinion either way on which way it will go but I think there's a strong argument that they could end up replaced with a retrofitted product that's more cost effective to tool up for and more environmentally friendly. The statement that China doesn't care may be true now but they'll start to care, probably around the same time they've increased their prices to a point where the junk is no longer inexpensive and quality goods are over the top expensive.
Aristocat
Well-known member
rupe":bjfybsxz said:
I'm an Economics major but I'm choosing to stay out of the debate (although my post now makes my aforementioned reasoning a moot point).
Aside from my statement; Rupe you're a 100% right. The money has to be in it and with a niche market (musicians/audiophiles) such as this, it would be almost impossible to be able to convince companies to invest in the tube game any further unless there is an alternative way to make the tubes at both a lower cost and in a new way as to please all sides of the spectrum (environmentalists/corporations/share holders etc.). No one is going to invest money into something that be deemed a dying field.
On the other hand, this will not go down as quickly as some may speculate. Major corporations (Marshall/Fender in particular) will continue to grow due to their business model (Marshall in particular). One half of Fender's business relies on amplifier production and their already in debt as is. They would invest (Tubes etc.) as to help avoid further losses down the road.
Amp companies would either go straight solid state/digital or pull their overseas/lesser quality amps in order to cut costs. Another thing they may do, is in order to keep whatever remaining tubes in amplifiers (as to appease us) they would take their flagship models (Plexi Reissues/SLO/Fender Twin etc.) and drive up the cost and keep quantity shipped/on-hand extremely limited. That way they can accomplish three things:
1. Keep audiophiles happy and loyal to the company (think exaggerated terms)
2. Continue their relationship with tube vendors until someone comes up with a way to either manufacture a new type of tube or to cut costs and make production less hazardous to people and the environment.
3. To recover from their losses (buying newly expensive tubes) and pull out of the negative after having to stop selling a major source of income (lower quality; easily attainable amps).
A niche market does not have enough pull or power to lobby for a dying market (tubes: they're finite). Amp companies and tube vendors however have a delicate relationship that will remain rock steady because they generate revenue for their respective Countries.
As long as there is enough green coming in without becoming too costly (tubes are not yet burdensome) amps will continue to stock them.
There is always a way around it.
Just my thought.
eljodon
Member
If it wasn't for the EPA, we wouldn't have to buy tubes from Russia and China!Abolish the EPA! They are bankrupting our country!LOL! I think everyone should save a % of their money and start stocking up on tubes. Find a room in your house and store them! I can see it in the future when you're on your last Quad of EL 34's! You'll be milking it so it can last! LOL!
J
JackTripper
Well-known member
rupe":1r3v7lql said:
I'm not sure either what the future holds, nor do I know what the VP's agenda really is, with his company or with the industry. But I assume the quote from the VP is in the context of today's market conditions, not in the context of a real supply shortage.
stephen sawall
SEMI ERECT MEMBER
Guitar is heading to the same death that the Saxophone did. Tube production will in our life time be dead. Only a matter of time.... it is obvious if you look at the whole issue.
shane159
New member
eljodon":230mv409 said:
This reminds me of allot of Harley Davidson guys that come into my Dads shop. These guys come in and cuss and bitch about import motorcycles while the majority of the electronics on their beloved Harleys are made in China. I watched a full grown man throw his headlight at one of his employees b/c they showed him the made in China stamp on his tail lights.
Aristocat
Well-known member
eljodon":2s9xr8lk said:
The EPA is a needed agency but it has some serious flaws and needs to be revamped. It is run soely based on special interest and has swings any which way once lobbyists' start showing the money.
Would you like to have regulations lessened on water treatment so you contract different illnesses every other week? Would you like the soil that cattle graze on to be contaminated with different carcinogens that then are transferred into your body once you eat the livestock?
Monsanto Chemical Corp were injecting cattle with growth hormones (Canada) to expedite the shipment of milk and meat to US and Canadian customers to the point that individuals were becoming sick from contaminated meat and disease ridden milk. No
regulation in that market because there is sufficient lobbying power to sway them in the other direction.
In fact, most of the food you eat even with regulation is GMO (genetically modified). This includes produce, meat and fish. And even with regulation, the fish you eat for example is filled with toxics from polluted oceanic water.
Off topic for sure, but there are reasons for this.
The last reason why tubes are made in Russia and China is not because of Environmental regulations but because it costs way too much money to produce in America alone. This is why our half of our infrastructure has migrated to China alone. It costs them very little to make because no one is riding their coattails and to import is slightly less. We also reap a huge benefit by selling them domestically as opposed to manufacturing them here as well. We'd lose out if we did both.
Think of it this way. If American's were to build tubes and it costs us $15 dollars and we could only sell them for $20 we'd make $5 in profit. But if the chinese could build tubes for $5 and import them to the U.S (where we sell them for $20) we make $15 in profit and China may get a $5 dollar kickback for helping us and we still make $10 in profit.
Russia and China have an absolute advantage over us in tube production and we save a shit ton of money importing tubes to America/Britain and where ever else.
shane159
New member
Monsanto is a horrible Corp, and it seems like people are hopefully starting to wise up to their ways.
glip22
Well-known member
I think the OP is correct. "Tubes will become obsolete". "When" would have made for a better thread. Not in my lifetime so I really don't give a shit. I will be in the ground. Tubes are a multi -billion dollar industry now. If all that is left is Chinese tubes there will still be tubes.
Atropos_Project
New member
Replace the word "tubes" with "vinyl", and use your time machine to post this 6 years ago, and you'd likely get the same sort of responses.
rupe
Active member
You've brought in tubes that lie outside of audio applications. What portion of that multi-billion dollar industry is comprised of tubes used in amps and stereo equipment? Are these other segments using the same tubes as guitar amps and high end audio? If not, are they built on the same machines or would/could those machines easily be re-purposed? I have no idea, but if the answer to those questions is no, then your point doesn't hold true.glip22":py2slavz said: