Floyd Eye
Well-known member
Hopefully they replace them with people who can actually drive safely and won’t just toss my package out on the driveway.
J
JDs Couch
Well-known member
NEW: The State of Colorado estimates that health insurance premiums on the individual market are about to spike by 100%+ and 7,500 Coloradans will lose coverage
rsm
Well-known member
Floyd Eye
Well-known member
Economist- “ The democrats healthcare plan has middle income earners subsidizing high income earners.”
JD style.
The~Kid
Well-known member
What did I say boys......... All aboard the DOW 50,000 train *_*
BABMusic
Well-known member
Stocks sold off a little bit yesterday, because Michael Burry revealed he is betting 1.1 billion against Nvidia and Palantir. The AI bubble is real and it will burst. The only question is, how long will it take? I wish I had the capital to bet against AI myself.
https://www.businessinsider.com/why-michael-burry-big-short-nvidia-palantir-ai-bubble-stocks-2025-11
https://www.businessinsider.com/why-michael-burry-big-short-nvidia-palantir-ai-bubble-stocks-2025-11
The~Kid
Well-known member
6 or 7..... Or 48/49,000 *_*
BABMusic
Well-known member
My gold is up again, so that's good news for me.
The~Kid
Well-known member
Well with all the deals President Trump just made in South East Asia and Asia in general....... Inflation and unemployment tame..... Putting some of that high octane Big Beautiful Bill fuel into the gas tank..... Government shutdown coming to an end after the Socialist Democrats caved in......
The Flood Gates are ready to open and burst at the seams...... It's coming baby..... It's time for DOW 50,000 baby.....
It's time to Make America Great Again *_*
The Flood Gates are ready to open and burst at the seams...... It's coming baby..... It's time for DOW 50,000 baby.....
It's time to Make America Great Again *_*
The~Kid
Well-known member
Money, money, money........
Thumbpicker
Well-known member
I think it's a Bubble and it will deflate It always does. It's like earthquakes in California and the "next big one". It may not happen tomorrow, or in a month or a year but it will happen at some point. As for how orderly the crash/correction will be and the magnitude everyone is guessing.
Thumbpicker
Well-known member
How about that stock market lol
psychodave
Well-known member
Dang, now I’m only up 17.5% vs 21% YTD.
rsm
Well-known member
Another great buying opportunity.
I've been buying on nearly every dip and drop for the past few months.
Why it's always good to have some cash on the side.
I recall Charlie Munger being asked about predicting the market / next drop / recession. He said knowing when the next drop / recession means nothing if you're not in a position to take the opportunity to buy. If you are in a position to buy in the next drop. it doesn't matter when the drop or crash happens, as long as you're prepared. A good company making good products / services is still a good company no matter what the market does. You want to be in a position to buy that company (security, fund, ETF, etc.) when it is below value / at a discount (aka on sale).
He told the story of Berkshire Hathaway before the 2008 crash; the media and shareholders were questioning why they kept so much cash on the sidelines and weren't buying in to the rising market. Charlie said he wanted to respond, Warren said there was no need to justify or explain what he was doing or why.
When the 2008 financial crisis / crash hit, Berkshire Hathaway was well-positioned to buy into the markets and into companies at steep discounts many that were down, some down 90% or more. Charlie said we didn't know when a crash was coming we knew a down turn is always a possibility, and we made sure we were ready; we didn't care when it happened because we were prepared to act whenever it happened.
I'm buying things at good discounts vs value; even if the price hasn't hit bottom because no one can predict when we hit bottom or how low it will go. So I keep buying on the drops. Cumulatively since the beginning of November, we are well down from October levels, and I hope we keep going down for a few more months, at least until I use up my cash reserves set aside for this kind of market. Once the market goes up, I'll be able to replenish my cash reserves until the next drop or crash, whenever it happens. It will, who knows when, it doesn't matter when.
I've been buying on nearly every dip and drop for the past few months.
Why it's always good to have some cash on the side.
I recall Charlie Munger being asked about predicting the market / next drop / recession. He said knowing when the next drop / recession means nothing if you're not in a position to take the opportunity to buy. If you are in a position to buy in the next drop. it doesn't matter when the drop or crash happens, as long as you're prepared. A good company making good products / services is still a good company no matter what the market does. You want to be in a position to buy that company (security, fund, ETF, etc.) when it is below value / at a discount (aka on sale).
He told the story of Berkshire Hathaway before the 2008 crash; the media and shareholders were questioning why they kept so much cash on the sidelines and weren't buying in to the rising market. Charlie said he wanted to respond, Warren said there was no need to justify or explain what he was doing or why.
When the 2008 financial crisis / crash hit, Berkshire Hathaway was well-positioned to buy into the markets and into companies at steep discounts many that were down, some down 90% or more. Charlie said we didn't know when a crash was coming we knew a down turn is always a possibility, and we made sure we were ready; we didn't care when it happened because we were prepared to act whenever it happened.
I'm buying things at good discounts vs value; even if the price hasn't hit bottom because no one can predict when we hit bottom or how low it will go. So I keep buying on the drops. Cumulatively since the beginning of November, we are well down from October levels, and I hope we keep going down for a few more months, at least until I use up my cash reserves set aside for this kind of market. Once the market goes up, I'll be able to replenish my cash reserves until the next drop or crash, whenever it happens. It will, who knows when, it doesn't matter when.
rsm
Well-known member
There's a probability that you may miss out completely or you may get lucky.
I don't trust luck; on slow gradual market decline, I dollar-cost-average, buy a little on each drop. If there is a major drop, then I simply increase my investment amount accordingly. If the major indices are down 200 or 300 points, I'll invest X; down 500 to 600 points, I'll invest 2 or 3 X, and so on, until my cash reserves I set aside for market drops is depleted.
It's a simple cycle; buy when the market is down / going, as much as you can; ride the market up and replenish cash; repeat.
BABMusic
Well-known member
Well, my gold held steady and even went up, so I'm happy.
J
JDs Couch
Well-known member
TEN MONTHS IN:
The national debt is higher.
The trade deficit is wider.
The inflation rate has worsened.
The unemployment rate is up.
The national debt is higher.
The trade deficit is wider.
The inflation rate has worsened.
The unemployment rate is up.
rsm
Well-known member
Yes, I have nearly 50% in cash, and I'm growing it.
This is just my subjective opinion and interpretation, what you do or don't do with it is up to you.
Here's what I see coming starting in the next few years. We are going to see a generational wealth creation and expansion opportunities we haven't seen since 2008.
There are some "tectonic" forces that are going to become active soon, at least in the USA. Here is what's hiding in plain sight that many are missing.
1) In the USA, we have Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) that require Americans with tax deferred accounts (aka traditional 401k, traditional IRA) to withdraw funds at rates that increase every year, from age 72/73 depending on when you were born.
Normally, this isn't a major influence on the markets, and it has been accommodated until now. What's changing is that the largest contingent of Baby Boomers is coming to their RMD age. Some estimates put their combined collective tax deferred wealth at $60T or more. Many will be forced to sell because of RMDs, driving the price of stocks, funds, bonds, ETFs down at least 30% likely more. This will hit the markets and Main St. like a series of tidal waves. Those who have cash will be able to by into the markets at deep discounts....in 2008 some stocks were selling as low as 90%+ discounts.
2) the market has been overvalued for awhile; we're seeing small corrections happening as the powers that be try to stabilize everything. I've been buying on these dips, small amounts...though I agree with @Thumbpicker a large crash is coming; I also believe it will be sustained over a few years, as the largest number of Boomers hit RMD age over the next 5 years.
3) reduced stock prices will slow down companies from spending or expanding; i.e., the economy will contract, and layoffs will ensue.
4) Workers and retirees are going to see their retirement savings value drop 30% or more, and just making that 30% back won't bring you back to where you were, because you lose the compounding. Many will look to their home equity to help, but housing prices will also go down reducing equity availability / amounts. Many will owe more on their mortgage than the market value of their property.
5) small business. Many Boomers own small businesses, and will be ready to sell as they get into their 70s. The younger generations are smaller in size; so Boomers selling their small businesses will have fewer younger buyers, and even fewer that can afford to buy these businesses. There will be more sellers than buyers; and in combination, it will drive the price of buying these businesses down significantly.
In summary, when the largest number of Boomers hit RMD age over the next several years, their sales of stocks, funds, ETFs etc., will drive prices down. Other investors will panic sell, increasing the supply and downward pressure on prices. In turn, companies will contract, spending less and laying off employees, further driving down the prices of stocks, funds, commodities, etc. People will see their net worth drop by 30% or more, and more panic selling will occur.
Based on the sizes and birth years of Boomers, we're looking at this lasting 3, 5, 7 even 10 years before it bottoms out.
Those who have cash will be able to buy into the stock markets, real estate markets, and small businesses at huge discounts; just like 2008 or even better.
We're in for a protracted recession unless the government does something to RMD to prevent several consecutive years of forced selling of investments worth trillions. I suspect by the time the government realizes their forced RMDs are what's destroying the economy it will be too late. Once these waves of RMD forced sales are over, it will take years for the markets to recover to current levels. We're looking at what might be 20 years worse case scenario to get back to market levels of 2025.
enjoy the decline, take advantage of it if you can.
