JDs Couch
Well-known member
What we are watching in real time is that Trump doesn't have any control. He can't declare a ceasefire indefinitely as he tried to do on Tuesday. Iran has been seizing ships ever since Taco Trump declared we're backing off indefinitely "at Pakistan's request", while Iran ghosted him at the negotiation table, because Iran is clearly done pretending that negotiation is a way out of this.
The central issue is the two key things that matter to the US is the Strait of Hormuz being OPEN not double blockaded, and Iran having nuclear weapons. There is no midway solution on either of the issues. The strait is either open or not. Iran either achieves nuclear weapons this year or they don't.
Trump is betting on economic pressure from the double blockade causing a collapse of Iran. For Trump's bet to win, this has to be the first time in history such an action worked that way. Even in US history in this region, it never works that way. Remember after the Bush Sr. invasion of Iraq, we pulled out and applied a severe set of sanctions that halved Saddam Hussein's economy. Does everyone remember when Saddam fell? It was only AFTER boots on the ground. Iran has been under severe sanctions since 2018. Their oil production went from 85% of their economy to 10%. We already applied 8 years of sanctions, and IF the US blockade becomes the most successful blockade in history, we're talking about only knocking off the last 10%. Economic pressure will not work. It never has.
There is a very simple reason why this counterintuitive pattern exists of countries consolidating power in the existing regime when economic isolation occurs. The IRGC is actually a small minority of the populace. Their strength is roughly 1-2% of the entire country, and they seem to be the main organization benefitting off of things like side-deals for their side of the blockade. They have the guns. They have the pattern of going out and killing any unarmed citizens that think they want something different in Iran. When resources dwindle in Iran, it is not the unarmed citizens sheltering in place in their houses that retain what resources are left. It is the IRGC that has all the guns and the power that retain what is left. Starving a country like this makes the only pathway to getting the remaining resources involving support of the government in place. Does everyone actually believe Kim Jong Un remains in power because of all the resources he gathers for his general populace? No, he persists in power despite North Korea's extreme isolation, because everyone inside that country has only one choice to have access to anything, supporting Kim Jong Un. The only likely scenario for Iran in an extended blockade is one regime that never goes away no matter how much citizens suffer, just like we see in North Korea.
There is an additional problem that Iran is not the only country being coerced economically, but the economic coercion they use on our allies is not for regime change. Our allies have far less natural agriculture than Iran does. The UAE that has recently come to light as possibly getting a bailout from the US government imports 90% of its food. In our double blockade, both Iran and the US allow Chinese ships to cross through to the UAE, but Iran is not allowing ships trading in US dollars to cross through at all. The result is if you live in the UAE, and you want to eat, someone has to have had the Chinese Yuan to purchase the food you want to eat. This is a coercion to create systemic change, and that type of change does work. It is behind the story of why the US dollar is so dominant in the world today. We structured the global trade system after WW2, and being the dominant currency over time reinforces the need to keep it that way. If US dollars are no longer useful long term, eventually the system changes to Chinese Yuan being central and that is a very difficult system to undo once the flip occurs. History does show conflicts like this leading to flips in the dominant global power. Look at the Suez Canal crisis if you don't believe me, and you will see the moment the US replaced the UK as the dominant economic power of the world.
The blunder Trump tripped into was starting this war to begin with. Now that he is in it he is trapped. He keeps trying to pretend there are more than two options, but in the end, there are only two options. Wars only end in two ways, a bilateral diplomatic agreement where both sides agree to terms they think are better than what they get from fighting, or a unilateral surrender. The reason why we know unilateral surrender is the only option available right now is because only Trump is trying to come to the negotiation table. Iran clearly thinks they get more from fighting than they do by negotiating, and every deal we've seen them offer in the previous two weeks have been 100% positive for Iran and negative for the US.
So the only way Trump flips this to a bilateral diplomatic agreement where both sides get a win or better for him a unilateral surrender by Iran is to actually harm Iran in a way they haven't already been harmed. Well, that makes the only answer other than surrender become obvious, it is military victory which will be a very difficult thing to achieve. We know he doesn't have it now, because every day there are reports of Iran seizing more ships. The US Navy still doesn't bring the carrier anywhere near the Strait, because everyone knows Iran can blow it out of the water if they do. Iran still shot down a F-15E, one of only six ever shot down ever, and 4 total have been lost in this war, because the other 3 were shot down by friendly fire when the US lost the ground systems that were distinguishing between friend and foe. We have reports of US military bases being lost in the Middle East, which is related to why you see the reports that they can't keep up with the food resupply of the carrier group. We have not won militarily no matter what Trump tells you. A military victory looks much different than what we see now.
What an actual military victory would look like is something like the surrender of Japan and Germany. Those both took fighting the enemy with actual soldiers, and we had to achieve a supremacy that did not occur in Vietnam, Korea, Iraq, or Afghanistan. Iran is bigger than North Vietnam, North Korea, Iraq, and Afghanistan combined with arguably a rougher terrain than all of them. Iran has areas where the ground gets so hot it kills nearly all life that isn't an extremophile, not just humans. We aren't just talking about the air feeling hot. We're talking about the ground itself frying anyone that tries to cross certain areas, and we are entering the Summer. It is covered in steep mountains. It is one of the most difficult spots on earth to occupy, and the US only wins militarily if it occupies and holds Iran long enough to have a domination that did not occur in Vietnam, Korea, Iraq, or Afghanistan.
Trump is losing this war by every measure that matters. He has not won militarily. He is not going to win economically as that has never worked in the past, and he has only two choices left. He can surrender, or he can invade. If he surrenders, Iran's strategic wins become permanent, they will have a nuclear bomb, and they will charge a toll for the strait. Iran stands to become the most powerful country in the Middle East if Trump does that. If he invades, we face the toughest fight we've been in since WW2. That won't end swiftly. It won't cost less than thousands of lives. The problem is the longer Trump tries to pretend those aren't the only two options, the longer he causes our current strategic loss to continue. We currently don't have the strait open, and that will affect us economically. We currently don't have Iran's nuclear material. They can have a bomb by the end of this year.
Now our economic future if this conflict doesn't end is starting to become evident. The first 45 days involved ships still in transit from before the war with companies and countries dipping into their reserves. The economy gave early price hikes to anticipate that things could be worse. That is over. As we approach the end of this month, we've seen more than price hikes as actual shortages have kicked in. Flights are being canceled left and right as jet fuel becomes unavailable. A diesel crisis has hit us as Brown University's energy tracker claims we've seen a 50% increase in price just until now. That affects the transport of everything in a country like ours that relies heavily on truck transport. Ports throughout the Gulf of America/Mexico are full of ships now taking oil away that was going to be US jet fuel, diesel, and gasoline if they aren't taking the jet fuel and diesel itself.
At the end of this month, companies will have a very clear picture of how much less they have to work with and days 60-90 in this war involve price increases occurring through demand destruction. Demand destruction price increases mean the price has to get so high that a large group of people can't use the previous goods and services they did before. That means people will need to face prices so high that some of them can't drive, some of them can't get as many goods on the shelves from truck transport as before, and some of them won't be able to fly. That is not going to be prices as low as they are now. There have been times in the past that process has stretched out 6 months instead of 90 days, but that is rare and that is still just a delay to the inevitable.
Any choice Trump makes that leaves this trade disruption in place for the next 40 days leads to the economic shock that hasn't hit us yet, and the only way out swiftly is surrender which leads to Iran becoming the strongest nation in the Middle East. Trump blundered into his only true options being surrender or invasion. Now we wait to see which consequence he will choose for us after his options have already run out.
The central issue is the two key things that matter to the US is the Strait of Hormuz being OPEN not double blockaded, and Iran having nuclear weapons. There is no midway solution on either of the issues. The strait is either open or not. Iran either achieves nuclear weapons this year or they don't.
Trump is betting on economic pressure from the double blockade causing a collapse of Iran. For Trump's bet to win, this has to be the first time in history such an action worked that way. Even in US history in this region, it never works that way. Remember after the Bush Sr. invasion of Iraq, we pulled out and applied a severe set of sanctions that halved Saddam Hussein's economy. Does everyone remember when Saddam fell? It was only AFTER boots on the ground. Iran has been under severe sanctions since 2018. Their oil production went from 85% of their economy to 10%. We already applied 8 years of sanctions, and IF the US blockade becomes the most successful blockade in history, we're talking about only knocking off the last 10%. Economic pressure will not work. It never has.
There is a very simple reason why this counterintuitive pattern exists of countries consolidating power in the existing regime when economic isolation occurs. The IRGC is actually a small minority of the populace. Their strength is roughly 1-2% of the entire country, and they seem to be the main organization benefitting off of things like side-deals for their side of the blockade. They have the guns. They have the pattern of going out and killing any unarmed citizens that think they want something different in Iran. When resources dwindle in Iran, it is not the unarmed citizens sheltering in place in their houses that retain what resources are left. It is the IRGC that has all the guns and the power that retain what is left. Starving a country like this makes the only pathway to getting the remaining resources involving support of the government in place. Does everyone actually believe Kim Jong Un remains in power because of all the resources he gathers for his general populace? No, he persists in power despite North Korea's extreme isolation, because everyone inside that country has only one choice to have access to anything, supporting Kim Jong Un. The only likely scenario for Iran in an extended blockade is one regime that never goes away no matter how much citizens suffer, just like we see in North Korea.
There is an additional problem that Iran is not the only country being coerced economically, but the economic coercion they use on our allies is not for regime change. Our allies have far less natural agriculture than Iran does. The UAE that has recently come to light as possibly getting a bailout from the US government imports 90% of its food. In our double blockade, both Iran and the US allow Chinese ships to cross through to the UAE, but Iran is not allowing ships trading in US dollars to cross through at all. The result is if you live in the UAE, and you want to eat, someone has to have had the Chinese Yuan to purchase the food you want to eat. This is a coercion to create systemic change, and that type of change does work. It is behind the story of why the US dollar is so dominant in the world today. We structured the global trade system after WW2, and being the dominant currency over time reinforces the need to keep it that way. If US dollars are no longer useful long term, eventually the system changes to Chinese Yuan being central and that is a very difficult system to undo once the flip occurs. History does show conflicts like this leading to flips in the dominant global power. Look at the Suez Canal crisis if you don't believe me, and you will see the moment the US replaced the UK as the dominant economic power of the world.
The blunder Trump tripped into was starting this war to begin with. Now that he is in it he is trapped. He keeps trying to pretend there are more than two options, but in the end, there are only two options. Wars only end in two ways, a bilateral diplomatic agreement where both sides agree to terms they think are better than what they get from fighting, or a unilateral surrender. The reason why we know unilateral surrender is the only option available right now is because only Trump is trying to come to the negotiation table. Iran clearly thinks they get more from fighting than they do by negotiating, and every deal we've seen them offer in the previous two weeks have been 100% positive for Iran and negative for the US.
So the only way Trump flips this to a bilateral diplomatic agreement where both sides get a win or better for him a unilateral surrender by Iran is to actually harm Iran in a way they haven't already been harmed. Well, that makes the only answer other than surrender become obvious, it is military victory which will be a very difficult thing to achieve. We know he doesn't have it now, because every day there are reports of Iran seizing more ships. The US Navy still doesn't bring the carrier anywhere near the Strait, because everyone knows Iran can blow it out of the water if they do. Iran still shot down a F-15E, one of only six ever shot down ever, and 4 total have been lost in this war, because the other 3 were shot down by friendly fire when the US lost the ground systems that were distinguishing between friend and foe. We have reports of US military bases being lost in the Middle East, which is related to why you see the reports that they can't keep up with the food resupply of the carrier group. We have not won militarily no matter what Trump tells you. A military victory looks much different than what we see now.
What an actual military victory would look like is something like the surrender of Japan and Germany. Those both took fighting the enemy with actual soldiers, and we had to achieve a supremacy that did not occur in Vietnam, Korea, Iraq, or Afghanistan. Iran is bigger than North Vietnam, North Korea, Iraq, and Afghanistan combined with arguably a rougher terrain than all of them. Iran has areas where the ground gets so hot it kills nearly all life that isn't an extremophile, not just humans. We aren't just talking about the air feeling hot. We're talking about the ground itself frying anyone that tries to cross certain areas, and we are entering the Summer. It is covered in steep mountains. It is one of the most difficult spots on earth to occupy, and the US only wins militarily if it occupies and holds Iran long enough to have a domination that did not occur in Vietnam, Korea, Iraq, or Afghanistan.
Trump is losing this war by every measure that matters. He has not won militarily. He is not going to win economically as that has never worked in the past, and he has only two choices left. He can surrender, or he can invade. If he surrenders, Iran's strategic wins become permanent, they will have a nuclear bomb, and they will charge a toll for the strait. Iran stands to become the most powerful country in the Middle East if Trump does that. If he invades, we face the toughest fight we've been in since WW2. That won't end swiftly. It won't cost less than thousands of lives. The problem is the longer Trump tries to pretend those aren't the only two options, the longer he causes our current strategic loss to continue. We currently don't have the strait open, and that will affect us economically. We currently don't have Iran's nuclear material. They can have a bomb by the end of this year.
Now our economic future if this conflict doesn't end is starting to become evident. The first 45 days involved ships still in transit from before the war with companies and countries dipping into their reserves. The economy gave early price hikes to anticipate that things could be worse. That is over. As we approach the end of this month, we've seen more than price hikes as actual shortages have kicked in. Flights are being canceled left and right as jet fuel becomes unavailable. A diesel crisis has hit us as Brown University's energy tracker claims we've seen a 50% increase in price just until now. That affects the transport of everything in a country like ours that relies heavily on truck transport. Ports throughout the Gulf of America/Mexico are full of ships now taking oil away that was going to be US jet fuel, diesel, and gasoline if they aren't taking the jet fuel and diesel itself.
At the end of this month, companies will have a very clear picture of how much less they have to work with and days 60-90 in this war involve price increases occurring through demand destruction. Demand destruction price increases mean the price has to get so high that a large group of people can't use the previous goods and services they did before. That means people will need to face prices so high that some of them can't drive, some of them can't get as many goods on the shelves from truck transport as before, and some of them won't be able to fly. That is not going to be prices as low as they are now. There have been times in the past that process has stretched out 6 months instead of 90 days, but that is rare and that is still just a delay to the inevitable.
Any choice Trump makes that leaves this trade disruption in place for the next 40 days leads to the economic shock that hasn't hit us yet, and the only way out swiftly is surrender which leads to Iran becoming the strongest nation in the Middle East. Trump blundered into his only true options being surrender or invasion. Now we wait to see which consequence he will choose for us after his options have already run out.
