Tubes to Become Obsolete?

[jlbaxe]

Hey must have read a footnote on the bottom of the Mayan calendar.

 

[jerrydyer]

this whole "cost to retool" argument is pointless. To the Chinese, its pennies.

comparing this subject to records versus cd's is flawed. companies are actually building record players again because people want them. they sound better.

China is the worlds largest steel producer buying its resources from us. retooling? its nothing to them.

 

[dooredge]

Economics aside, I'll take this guy's opinion over this guy's any day of the week. Scientist vs. Marketing Guru.

Accompanying article: Return of the Vacuum Tube

 

[Bob Savage]

this whole "cost to retool" argument is pointless. To the Chinese, its pennies.

comparing this subject to records versus cd's is flawed. companies are actually building record players again because people want them. they sound better.

China is the worlds largest steel producer buying its resources from us. retooling? its nothing to them.

Jerry, the cost to retool is never pointless unless you're talking about a new drill for your cordless screw gun. You're oversimplifying the topic. Nonetheless, I don't think tubes are going away soon enough to matter to you and I.

 

[rupe]

Economics aside, I'll take this guy's opinion over this guy's any day of the week. Scientist vs. Marketing Guru.

Accompanying article: Return of the Vacuum Tube

You continue to ignore the issue of audio tubes vs all other types/functions. What does Meyya Meyyapan think about audio specifically? I'm not pretending to have a clue myself, I just haven't seen one credible argument for the ongoing production of AUDIO tubes yet and I've searched well beyond the baseless opinions in this thread. Ritchie is a guy with established credibility. I have no idea if he's correct, but at least he's offering a researched view point on a specific tube type and not simply tubes in general.

 

[moltenmetalburn]

The 2 space Rocktron Velocity 300 from the early 90's sounds as good, and at times better than any tube-based power amp I've ever played through. Tech21 has a couple of solid-state preamps that are quite impressive also. It would suck if tubes became extinct, but there are alternatives. I use to play a solid-state Peavey 'Renown' 212 back in the early 80's...that thing rocked!

I dunno man spent a summer on the road with one and thought it was the worst sounding poweramp I've ever heard lol. The matrix we bought on tour absolutely killed it dead no contest, have you tried any class a/b mosfet ss power amps?


As for there being viable ss options, I agree.

 

[Rogue]

I'm not pretending to have a clue myself, I just haven't seen one credible argument for the ongoing production of AUDIO tubes yet and I've searched well beyond the baseless opinions in this thread.....

I haven't seen a credible argument for $4k amplifiers, $3k guitars, the plethora of pedals, much less multiple instances of each, yet there are all around.

With the $$$$ people are willing to drop for their rig (of the moment), I feel many will drop the coin on tubes. Hell, people even drop that kind of cash for NOS tubes. Not everyone for sure, but many.

Again, I think they'll fade away eventually, but only after digital (or perhaps these newfangled SS tubes) can truly match the performance of tubes. There may not be as many manufacturers and we may only end up with one brand of tube or "boutique" tubes, but there will be a demand for them even at a premium until other technologies can do it.

Also, as other companies go under, it is possible existing companies can make some changes to output different tubes for that market.

Interesting information, not sure how true it is..

http://www.sltrib.com/csp/cms/sites/sltrib/pages/printerfriendly.csp?id=53206814

Says the US exports buttloads of tubes every year. Most likely for military or medical applications, but never the less, and industry that appears to be doing fairly well could justify some retooling to produce tubes for consumers that demand them. I'm not sure how much it would cost a company that already makes tubes to make different ones, but it seems the most expensive aspect would already be there.

I don't know what the future holds, but certainly many people that have claimed the deaths of things have been wrong. And some have been right. I just know guitar tube amps were supposed to die out decades ago, yet here we are.

 

[jerrydyer]

were assuming the chinese factories have not retooled. Based on production I would say they have. even though the cost is worth it to them. they have the money and resources. no problem tubes will be around past our deaths. lots of other uses still .

 

[Bob Savage]

were assuming the chinese factories have not retooled. Based on production I would say they have. even though the cost is worth it to them. they have the money and resources. no problem tubes will be around past our deaths. lots of other uses still .

The whole argument on both sides in this thread are based upon assumptions, including the assumptions that China is using new tooling.

What I agree with is that you and I won't see the end of vacuum tubes. That too is based upon assumptions.

 

[rupe]

were assuming the chinese factories have not retooled. Based on production I would say they have. even though the cost is worth it to them. they have the money and resources. no problem tubes will be around past our deaths. lots of other uses still .

Wrong, we're hearing from Mr. Fliegler, who had skin in the game, that they haven't...that's not an assumption. The only assumption that I'm making is that Ritchie isn't lying to us about his knowledge of the infrastructure, which includes real research on the cost to rebuild.

I think the most reasonable assumption in this thread is Rogue's prediction for the possibility of "boutique" tubes...though most likely at a cost that makes them unobtainable for the masses (my assumption ...probably as worthless as all the others).

 

[Bob Savage]

Wrong, we're hearing from Mr. Fliegler, who had skin in the game, that they haven't...that's not an assumption. The only assumption that I'm making is that Ritchie isn't lying to us about his knowledge of the infrastructure, which includes real research on the cost to rebuild.

I think the most reasonable assumption in this thread is Rogue's prediction for the possibility of "boutique" tubes...though most likely at a cost that makes them unobtainable for the masses (my assumption ...probably as worthless as all the others).

I did not see any backing data from Fliegler so for me I have to ASSUME that Fliegler is correct, has no axe to grind and is an honest man. That's not enough for me to have a solid opinion.

 

[rupe]

Wrong, we're hearing from Mr. Fliegler, who had skin in the game, that they haven't...that's not an assumption. The only assumption that I'm making is that Ritchie isn't lying to us about his knowledge of the infrastructure, which includes real research on the cost to rebuild.

I think the most reasonable assumption in this thread is Rogue's prediction for the possibility of "boutique" tubes...though most likely at a cost that makes them unobtainable for the masses (my assumption ...probably as worthless as all the others).

I did not see any backing data from Fliegler so for me I have to ASSUME that Fliegler is correct, has no axe to grind and is an honest man.

I think I covered that with my assumption that someone with his reputation is not lying. There's been no real data and I'm sure his research was done under Fender and/or Marshall and is most likely proprietary.

On a side note, I find it odd that his bio, as linked to above, contained nothing about his tenure with Marshall.

 

[Anonymous]

All I know is that if AMT electronics comes out with solid state 12AX7 and EL34 replacement devices and they sound like the analog tubes I like, I'll be putting them in all my amps, my own and the ones I sell. The idea of never buying tubes again is attractive to me if the tone and feel I get with real tubes is there...

Steve

 

[thiswaythatway]

I just think we'll see more stuff like this in the future:

Too many tube amps out there to not find a solution if vacuum tubes go away...

Steve

Now this I agree with. Plus, they look cool. I want some.

But you gots to get da blue one's, heard they have much better tone.

 

[Rogue]

I think the most reasonable assumption in this thread is Rogue's prediction for the possibility of "boutique" tubes...though most likely at a cost that makes them unobtainable for the masses (my assumption ...probably as worthless as all the others).

I never would have thought there would be as many "boutique" amp builders out there, but there seems to be plenty. No shortage of boutiques that people seem more than happy to spend the dinks on.

That said, if they can't manage a low cost tube for the masses that aren't concerned with what kind of tube is in there, that could have an effect. When a retube costs $3-400...assuming it gets to that extreme. And of course, that would add to the price of the amp. On the other hand, tube amps are fairly more expensive than their non-tube siblings and they still seem to be selling well enough to justify their existence.

Certainly on some level, more expensive tubes will have an effect, but there seems to be a healthy market willing to spend the extra money for them. That makes me think somewhere down the line someone will supply that demand even when other companies are shutting their doors.

 

[Bob Savage]

I think I covered that with my assumption that someone with his reputation is not lying. There's been no real data and I'm sure his research was done under Fender and/or Marshall and is most likely proprietary.

On a side note, I find it odd that his bio, as linked to above, contained nothing about his tenure with Marshall.

You're still relying upon an assumptions.

1) Research was done by Fender which is proprietary, but supports his position.
2) You're giving him the benefit of the doubt as an honest man with no axe to grind, which is a good thing, but unless you know him well enough personally that you can judge his character, you don't know.

Dunno... Maybe he's not fond of his time with Marshall.

 

[rupe]

All I know is that if AMT electronics comes out with solid state 12AX7 and EL34 replacement devices and they sound like the analog tubes I like, I'll be putting them in all my amps, my own and the ones I sell. The idea of never buying tubes again is attractive to me if the tone and feel I get with real tubes is there...

Steve

werd

 

[Bob Savage]

All I know is that if AMT electronics comes out with solid state 12AX7 and EL34 replacement devices and they sound like the analog tubes I like, I'll be putting them in all my amps, my own and the ones I sell. The idea of never buying tubes again is attractive to me if the tone and feel I get with real tubes is there...

Steve

No doubt about it.

 

[Bob Savage]

But you gots to get da blue one's, heard they have much better tone.

Plus they would match my Ecstasy blue pedal.

 

[glassjaw7]

But you gots to get da blue one's, heard they have much better tone.

Plus they would match my Ecstasy blue pedal.

I was just going to say, if Bogner can make a pedal (my XTC Red) that sounds as good if not better than any of the tube preamps I've owned o played, then I'm sure builders will find a way around this, if it does happen. Also, the clips of the AMT SS tubes don't sound a whole lot different than the tube clips and think of where the Kemper/profiling tech will be in 10 years. I'm not worried.