Tubes to Become Obsolete?

[Tonelover]

What are those?

I just think we'll see more stuff like this in the future:

Too many tube amps out there to not find a solution if vacuum tubes go away...

Steve

 

[rupe]

And Steve, what the hell are those?

Check it out:

Solid-state equivalent of 6L6 and 12AX7 tubes from AMT Electronics

Steve

Coo, thanksl! I remember those Wattgrinder/Tonegrinder 12AX7 substitutes but I never heard of power tube replacements. I'll be curious to try these out.

http://www.wattgrinder.com/TGDescription.htm

 

[Bob Savage]

I just think we'll see more stuff like this in the future:

Too many tube amps out there to not find a solution if vacuum tubes go away...

Steve

Now this I agree with. Plus, they look cool. I want some.

 

[Kevin11]

This issue comes up about as often as the world-ending prophecies do. I've been around these boards since HC was in its infancy. Tubes were supposed to be long gone in 5 to 10 years way back when Line6 released the first AX212 amp. I know, because I bought one of those piles after buying into the hype.

The tube amp market has exploded in the intervening years and instead of the doom and gloom I heard over-and-over regarding tubes, we have more options than ever before.

Maybe it's been stated here already, but guitar amps aren't the only 'consumer' products using vacuum tubes. Lots of high-end audiophiles out there would be lost too.

I can see prices continuing to go up, like everything else in the world, but tubes aren't going anywhere any time soon. The market will see to that in one way or another. Rest easy.

 

[dooredge]

I agree. Vertical integration. If Apple can buy its chip maker, then why can't Fender or Marshall buy a tube manufacturer? They could be had for cheap if these companies are in fact anachronistic, and it ensures future supply.

^Exactly.


I would give the AMT solidstate tubes a try. AMT are very good at what they do and if anyone will make this concept work, that company is the likeliest.

Here are photos from Mike Fortin's fb page showing previous attempts at solidstate tubes. Pretty fancy looking! Needless to say this is not a new concept and REAL tubes are not going anywhere anytime soon.

 

[Bob Savage]

I know nothing of the costs or environmental restrictions to produce tubes, however, what's being missed by most is that while there seems to be a large market for tubes to us as players of tube amps (and audiophiles, many off whom use SS gear nowadays), what's being said is that once the equipment that makes the tubes is EOL the return on investment is not there to build new equipment. Whether true or not, neither I or probably anybody here knows the reality of this but as has been stated, SOMETHING to plug into that slot will likely be available well after most of us are taking a dirt nap.

 

[ejecta]

One thing to consider as well..... is how long will guitar players demand tubes to get their sound? You have a bunch of new young players cutting their teeth on solid state and digital gear. Sure some will move on to like tube amps but I would bet that group over time will get smaller and smaller as generations come along. Shoot..... the electric guitar in it's current state could become more like classical instruments and not so widely used in making mainstream music.

I don't think this will happen in the nest 10 - 15 years but it wouldn't surprise me if I live to be a really old dude to see tubes being used much less... if not obsolete.

 

[jerrydyer]

I agree. Vertical integration. If Apple can buy its chip maker, then why can't Fender or Marshall buy a tube manufacturer? They could be had for cheap if these companies are in fact anachronistic, and it ensures future supply.

^Exactly.


I would give the AMT solidstate tubes a try. AMT are very good at what they do and if anyone will make this concept work, that company is the likeliest.

Here are photos from Mike Fortin's fb page showing previous attempts at solidstate tubes. Pretty fancy looking! Needless to say this is not a new concept and REAL tubes are not going anywhere anytime soon.

three jfets, two caps and two diodes will never replace tubes. maybe something in 50 years from now. you would have to control things that are not yet controllable.

 

[snowdog]

Not going to happen any time soon.

If there is some big shortage, somebody will invest some money in some far away location and find a way to make some.

 

[DoomBuggi]

This thread made me throw up in my mouth a little bit.

 

[Bob Savage]

If there is some big shortage, somebody will invest some money in some far away location and find a way to make some.

Are you sure? Sorry, the sentence just comes across to me as humorous.

 

[snowdog]

If there is some big shortage, somebody will invest some money in some far away location and find a way to make some.

Are you sure? Sorry, the sentence just comes across to me as humorous.

Guys like Aspen Pittman from Groove Tubes has done it before, buying some of the original machines tubes were made in from the U.S. go read up on him.

I'm sure someone will step up and make it happen if need be. Too many people are making money selling $3k amps to let the tube supply disappear.

 

[Dallas Marlow]

With the tremendous leeps in robotic production, and the continued advancement there is absolutely no reason a new process can't be developed that doesn't require the aging "skilled" labor force. Small boutique tube manufacturing will still exist and so will tube production in one form or another, but chance are they will be built much more by machines and much less by hand. Currently from many production tubes their failure rate and build quality is abysmal, hence the room for a higher reliability and more refined system to be put into place.

 

[Bob Savage]

Guys like Aspen Pittman from Groove Tubes has done it before, buying some of the original machines tubes were made in from the U.S. go read up on him.

I'm sure someone will step up and make it happen if need be. Too many people are making money selling $3k amps to let the tube supply disappear.

I know who Aspen is and he bought equipment that was not EOL. Think about it, if the equipment is EOL then there's a significant investment required because you can't just buy the used equipment, you have to start over and build new.

Perhaps you're right that if there some shortage that someone will find a place somewhere far a way to make some but if someone has to start by building a manufacturing plant from scratch it's going to cost a lot of money. This is business so if the ROI is too far out, someone isn't going to be building a manufacturing plant.

 

[Bob Savage]

With the tremendous leeps in robotic production, and the continued advancement there is absolutely no reason a new process can't be developed that doesn't require the aging "skilled" labor force. Small boutique tube manufacturing will still exist and so will tube production in one form or another, but chance are they will be built much more by machines and much less by hand. Currently from many production tubes their failure rate and build quality is abysmal, hence the room for a higher reliability and more refined system to be put into place.

Absolutely true, it's not a matter of whether it can be done, it's a matter of ROI.

Quite frankly, I hope you guys that are optimistic are right and who knows how much life is still left on the equipment that's currently used, but I could see this going both ways. I think something that's not a vacuum tube that acts as one is probably more along the lines of what will actually happen but only time will tell.

 

[WildNorth]

Part of the issue is that so few companies make a really good solid state amp. Most solid state amps are geared towards the budget minded consumer. I would think the AMT solid state tube might take off if real tubes were to go out of production........ or the amp manufacturers would finally begin making much higher quality SS amps (better transformers, speakers, cabs, etc).

I don't much mind the tone of some of my SS amps at bedroom volumes, but turn the things up and they sound like ass, the cabs rattle, and the speakers are flubby. Most of this could be rectified (no pun intended) simply by building these amps with quality components. Something today's manufacturers reserve only for their high end tube amps.

 

[rupe]

Guys like Aspen Pittman from Groove Tubes has done it before, buying some of the original machines tubes were made in from the U.S. go read up on him.

I'm sure someone will step up and make it happen if need be. Too many people are making money selling $3k amps to let the tube supply disappear.

I know who Aspen is and he bought equipment that was not EOL. Think about it, if the equipment is EOL then there's a significant investment required because you can't just buy the used equipment, you have to start over and build new.

Perhaps you're right that if there some shortage that someone will find a place somewhere far a way to make some but if someone has to start by building a manufacturing plant from scratch it's going to cost a lot of money. This is business so if the ROI is too far out, someone isn't going to be building a manufacturing plant.

To piggyback on Bob, it doesn't make a shit bit of difference how many tube amps are being built...nobody is going to invest in a tube manufacturing plant if the ROI isn't attractive. The man quoted in the original post actually has research on his side, not merely an impassioned opinion. He mentioned it wouldn't happen unless people were willing to pay 300b prices for a 12AX7...let me help you out with what that means:
http://www.thetubestore.com/Tubes/300B-Tube-Types
And that's just preamp tubes...no estimates even given on power tubes. So if its going to cost north of $1000 to retube an amp, just what do you think will happen to the demand? We're already talking about a tiny niche market for tubes in the overall scheme of things. Demand is a variable and is directly affected by price...it will plummet if the prices skyrocket.

 

[hellaboogie]

I can't see it happening in my life time

 

[shane159]

Tubes are not going anywhere anytime soon. Hell, Guitarist are bad enough, but check out some of the audiophile forums. Those guys probably sleep with some of their tubes. Those forums are the best for a late night laugh after a few drinks.

 

[jlbaxe]

I can't see it happening in my life time

Agreed not going to happen but I have some swamp land in Fla I will sell ya

Comes down to supply and demand. People will always need tubes for amps and someone will always make them. More likely to run out of the USA coal/oil supply first….in 200+ years